Washington’s Final Deals: Why This Might Be the Best Buying Window Right Now

Some of the best real estate deals for buyers and investors are happening right now, even though the market feels uncomfortable. That discomfort is exactly what creates opportunity.

A rare mix of headwinds is hitting Washington at the same time, and it is pushing sellers into motivation while giving buyers leverage. This is what deal season looks like.

The Market Feels Weird Because It Is

Several factors are stacking up all at once:

• Government shutdown uncertainty
  
  
• Ongoing China trade conflict
  
  
• Higher interest rates still affecting affordability
  
  
• Rising unemployment and a slowing economy
  
  
• High profile layoffs, including Amazon laying off 14,000 people
  
  

When layoffs start hitting high income sectors and confidence drops, buyers pause. Sellers still need to move. That imbalance creates negotiating power for people who are ready to act.

Why Real Estate Is Not Crashing (Even Though People Keep Predicting It)

A common argument is that real estate is unaffordable and must be headed for a collapse. If that were true, the warning signs would already be obvious.

A true housing crash usually comes with:

• Foreclosures rising sharply
  
  
• Bankruptcies spiking
  
  
• Forced selling flooding the market
  
  

That is not what is happening.

Instead, what we are seeing is this:

• Building permits are down
  
  
• Development applications are down
  
  
• Supply is shrinking even further
  
  
• Demand will return the moment affordability improves
  
  

That is the real story. Less supply plus returning demand means prices rise, not collapse.

The Money Printer Is Coming Back (And That Means Asset Prices Rise)

The economy is slowing. Unemployment is rising. The Federal Reserve is pivoting.

The goal is to prevent the economy from falling apart, and that almost always means easier money, lower rates, and more liquidity.

When money becomes easier, asset prices inflate. Real estate is one of the first places that shows it.

So yes, things feel uncertain. That uncertainty is what creates deal season. But the larger trend points toward rising prices once rates continue falling.

Why the “Mid 5s” Matter So Much

Here is where things get serious.

Fannie Mae recently forecasted rates reaching 5.9% by the end of 2026, and they are known for being conservative. The problem is, the data is already moving faster than that.

The prediction here is simple:

• 5.9% could arrive by spring
  
  
• Mid 5s could happen by 2026
  
  

And even now, buyers can get into the 5s by using:

• A 5/1 ARM
  
  
• A $5,000 to $7,000 buydown
  
  

The reason the 5s matter is because demand jumps dramatically as rates approach 5.5%. Multiple research sources have shown this, and we see it locally in the Seattle metro too.

When rates dip under 6, activity begins increasing immediately.

Proof That Buyer Demand Is Already Returning

This is not theoretical. Early signals are already showing up:

• Social media views rising
  
  
• Website traffic climbing
  
  
• More showings on listings
  
  
• More buyer agreements being signed
  
  

Mortgage brokers are also reporting:

• Applications up double digits
  
  
• Refinances up double digits
  
  

That is a major shift. Not long ago, deal season felt like it was ending. Now the numbers show that rates are dropping faster than expected and demand is starting to wake up again.

What This Means Right Now for Buyers and Investors

This is the window.

Deal season exists when the market feels uncertain, when sellers feel pressure, and when buyers are not fully back yet.

Buyers and investors should treat this moment like a short term discount period, because once rates settle into the 5s, competition increases and leverage disappears.

If you are waiting for the perfect time, you are likely going to miss it.

The Bottom Line

Washington is in deal season right now because:

• uncertainty is high
  
  
• rates are shifting downward
  
  
• layoffs are shaking confidence
  
  
• supply is shrinking
  
  
• demand is starting to return
  
  

That combination does not last long.

The winds are changing, and the people paying attention to the data are already moving.