The Kirkland Housing Lie: Inventory is Surging, But Prices Aren't Falling.

Kirkland Real Estate Isn’t Crashing — But Your Strategy Might Be

If you’ve been watching Kirkland real estate from the sidelines, thinking “nothing’s changing,” I’m here to tell you that’s the wrong read. The market is shifting — not in a crash way, but in a “quiet opportunity window” way. And if you’re not paying attention, you’re going to miss one of the best buying windows Kirkland has offered in more than a decade.

This isn’t hype. The data shows a real inflection point in the last 90 days. Kirkland is moving out of the pandemic-era white-hot frenzy and into something that finally resembles a normal market — with actual negotiating power showing up for buyers in certain pockets.

Why the Market Is Shifting Right Now

There are a few forces hitting Kirkland at the same time:

• Interest rates stayed higher, longer than most people expected.
  
  
• Political and economic uncertainty (tariffs, shutdown chatter, national noise) is spiking hesitation.
  
  
• Buyers are pulling back, and inventory is stacking up.
  
  

That combo doesn’t destroy a market like Kirkland — the tech wealth here keeps a strong baseline — but it does slow the velocity, and that slowdown is where leverage appears.

Inventory Jumped — And That Matters

Here’s the headline change: months of supply in Kirkland spiked to 3.9 months.

That may not sound huge until you remember that during the pandemic, Kirkland was running on less than half a month of supply. Moving from “basically no homes” to almost four months is a massive shift, and it signals something important:

Buyers finally have room to negotiate again.

This isn’t a crash. This is a correction back toward reality.

The 10-Year Treasury Is the Silent Driver

The 10-year treasury is what sets the direction for mortgage rates. And it’s been trending down this year. That’s why mortgage rates are already sliding into the low sixes — and why the odds are strong we’ll see more rate cuts baked into late 2025 and into 2026.

That matters because:

• Cheaper debt = more buyers
  
  
• More buyers = hotter spring market
  
  
• Hotter market = deal season ends
  
  

So yes — there’s opportunity now, but this window doesn’t stay open forever.

Prices Are Flat in Kirkland (Which Is a Big Deal)

The median price is only up 1.3% year over year. Meanwhile inflation is still around 2.5–3%. Translation?

Kirkland prices are basically flat, maybe even slightly down in real terms.

The average price is up more — but that’s likely because higher-end homes are selling and pulling the average upward. The median is a cleaner indicator of what “normal” buyers are actually experiencing.

Listings and Homes for Sale Are Surging

Two stats should jump out:

• Listings are up 23.3%
  
  
• Homes for sale are up 68%
  
  

That spike in active inventory is real evidence that demand cooled. Buyers are hesitating. Sellers are piling onto the market. And the result is predictable:

More choice for buyers and more price pressure for sellers.

That’s deal season behavior.

The 3 Metrics That Tell You Where Deals Are

When you’re hunting opportunity in Kirkland, three metrics matter most:

1. Active listings — rising inventory creates options.
   
   
2. Days on market — longer timelines mean slower buyer demand.
   
   
3. Percent of original list price received — the real negotiation tracker.
   
   

Right now, Kirkland’s percent of original list price received dropped to 95.7%. That means the average buyer got a bit over 4% off list price last month.

But here’s the twist: Kirkland isn’t one market.

Kirkland Is a Tale of Two Zip Codes

This is where strategy gets sharp.

98034: The Stable, Resilient Kirkland

In 98034, the median is holding tight right around $1.4M. Demand is resilient. Price stability is strong. Even list-to-sale ratios say buyers are still competing here.

If you’re buying near the median in this zip, you’re buying into one of the most insulated market pockets in the metro.

98033: Where the Discounts Live

98033 is the opposite story.

The median growth is only 2.6% year to date, and the average price is slightly negative compared to inflation. That signals softness in the upper-end and ultra-luxury segment.

If you’re shopping high-end Kirkland, this is the area you negotiate harder. The data is literally telling you sellers are losing leverage heading into winter.

Winter Sellers Are Telling You They’re Motivated

Winter is always slower. Most people pull listings off the market.

So when a Kirkland seller stays on market through winter, that usually means one thing:

They need to sell.

And motivated sellers are where buyers win — with price cuts, concessions, rate buydowns, and stronger inspection timelines.

The Investor Play: Middle Housing + ADU/DDU

For investors and house hackers, Kirkland just got way more interesting.

New rules now allow:

• Duplexes on lots that used to be single-family only
  
  
• Fourplexes more broadly
  
  
• Up to six units near transit zones
  
  
• ADU/DDU builds in many neighborhoods
  
  

That opens two major paths:

1) Scrape-and-build lots

Find older homes that are basically land value, tear them down, and replace with middle housing (duplex/triplex/fourplex). That’s forced equity.

2) ADU/DDU on large lots

Look for lots over ~6,000 sq ft with access to the backyard. Build a detached unit and add value instantly.

Because Kirkland’s median sits around $1.4M, anything you build below that number is protected by demand.

Long-Term Supply Is Weak — That Protects Prices

Kirkland’s long-term housing pipeline is low. The city has aggressive housing targets, but most new density is concentrated in Totem Lake, downtown, and around the NE 85th Street station area.

Outside of those zones, supply isn’t flooding in anytime soon.

So even with today’s slowdown, the broader structural problem remains:

not enough housing.

And scarcity is long-term price fuel.

What This Means for You

Here’s the simple takeaway:

1. Ultra-luxury buyers have leverage right now — especially in 98033.
   
   
2. Median-range buyers are buying into stability — particularly in 98034.
   
   
3. The market is normalizing, not collapsing.
   
   
4. Spring 2026 is likely hotter as rates drop and buyers return.
   
   
5. Best investment upside is middle housing and ADU/DDU builds.
   
   

This is deal season — probably the end of it — and the buyers who move now are the ones who’ll look smartest a year or two from today.